New HSBA Briefing Paper on MANPADS and the RSF in Sudan

Despite a 20-year international campaign to combat the threat from illicit man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), acquisition and use of these weapons by non-state armed groups continues, especially in the Middle East and North Africa region. While international concern over MANPADS proliferation has traditionally focused on the threat of terrorist-designated groups' acquisition and use, this Briefing Paper highlights a broader challenge emerging from the conflict in Sudan: the proliferation of advanced weapons systems to powerful non-state armed groups possessing military capabilities more commonly associated with state armed forces. Sudan provides perhaps the clearest example of this trend, with documented evidence since April 2023 showing members of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with at least eight models of MANPADS, including recent-generation systems not previously seen outside of government control.

Arsenal Upgrades: MANPADS, the RSF, and the War in Sudan—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan project—examines the illicit possession of MANPADS by the RSF and assesses the implications of this proliferation for conventional weapons threat mitigation efforts.

Read: Arsenal Upgrades: MANPADS, the RSF, and the War in Sudan

For more, check out:

• A History of Outsourced Violence: The Rise of the Rapid Support Forces, Libyan National Army, and Wagner Group (December 2025)—a Briefing Paper that analyses the history of outsourced violence in Sudan, and how the resurgence of mercenary economies and transactional alliances in Sudan, Chad, Libya, and the Central African Republic challenges peacebuilding in the region
• The Republic of Kadamol: A Portrait of the Rapid Support Forces at War (January 2025)—a Briefing Paper that offers an insight into RSF recruitment strategies, war aims, and command and control problems
• Persistent Perils: Illicit MANPADS in the MENA Region (April 2024)—a Report that provides an in-depth analysis of the proliferation of MANPADS in North Africa and the Middle East from 2015–23
• The Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) project page
• South Sudan outputs in our Resource Library

Other news from the Survey:

• New Small Arms Survey Annual Report 2025
• New methodology for tracking civilian firearms dynamics
• New blog post on C-IED and the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus
• New HSBA Briefing Paper on the state of the Nuer White Armies of South Sudan
• New Report on small arms proliferation in Ukraine
• New HSBA Situation Update on the war in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal states
• New HSBA Situation Update on the rise and fall of Benjamin Bol Mel
• New Report on firearm-related violence and trafficking in the Caribbean